Just 60 days ago that Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager scolded him over missing a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club went six without a win, doubts remained if his performances were a sign or a cause of Villa's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, however, the manager's outburst proved to be far more favourable. When the in-form star curled home his brace-sealing goal to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The team marched on to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their opening six fixtures, are somehow only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Serious Title Contenders?
That’s a particularly tough query to address. Past precedent, the perceived status of the club, suggests not. Additionally, they've rarely been wholly dominant during this run, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.
According to Opta, twice all season has the team registered an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a team who have just won ten consecutive victories, they seem weirdly vulnerable – however right now the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic seems to be to exchange chances with the opposition and wait for their star man to rescue them with a couple of crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and it happened versus United.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, bent precisely inside the post from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent they will encounter in the near future. The forward, surely, will not continue to blasting his shots into the top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Could it be a different scenario in which, rather than luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs might still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins might resume finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent might become the player he showed in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this is a surprise. Few believed Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as an essential player for the national team.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. As the match-winner positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, it was clear to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These runs of form do not happen often and should be relished.
